Scientists have
said for years that global warming was “loading the dice” when it comes
to increasing the frequency of severe storms, and a new Environment New
Mexico Research & Policy Center report makes it clear that New
Mexico is already experiencing extreme downpours much more frequently.
Specifically, the new report found that storms with heavy rainfall are
now 44% percent more frequent in the New Mexico than they were 60 years
ago.
“At
the rate we’re going, what was once the storm of the decade will soon
seem like just another downpour,” said Lauren Ketcham, an Environment
New Mexico Advocate.
Ketcham
pointed to the rainstorms that hit Albuquerque in July of 2006 as an
illustration of what more extreme rainstorms could mean for the region.
That storm, which dumped 5 and a half inches on the area, led to severe
flooding, especially in Martineztown, where the Environment New Mexico
press conference was held today.
“More
frequent downpours, fueled by global warming, will leave New Mexico
even more vulnerable to dangerous flooding in years to come,” said
Ketcham.
The
new Environment New Mexico Research & Policy Center report, When it
Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme
Precipitation in the United States, examines trends in the frequency of
large rain and snow events across the continental United States from
1948 to 2006.
Using
data from 3,000 weather stations and a methodology originally developed
by scientists at the National Climatic Data Center and the Illinois
State Water Survey, the report identifies storms with the greatest
24-hour precipitation totals at each weather station, and analyzes when
those storms occurred.
Nationally,
the report shows that storms with extreme precipitation have increased
in frequency by 24 percent across the continental United States since
1948.
At
the state level, 40 states show a significant trend toward more
frequent storms with extreme precipitation, while only one state
(Oregon) shows a significant decline.
Key findings for the Mountain region and New Mexico include:
Storms with extreme precipitation increased in frequency by 25% percent in the Mountain region from 1948 to 2006.
New Mexico experienced a 44% percent increase in extreme rainstorms during the period studied.
These
findings are consistent with the predicted impacts of global warming.
Scientists expect some parts of the United States to receive more
precipitation as a result of global warming, while other parts receive
less.
But
regardless of the trend in total precipitation, scientists predict that
the rain and snow that does fall will be more likely to come in big
downpours and heavy snowstorms.
Environment New Mexico was joined by Interfaith Power and Light and the Sierra Club at a press event to release today’s report.
Ketcham
was careful to note that an increase in the frequency of extreme
rainstorms does not mean more water will be available. Scientists
expect that, as global warming intensifies, longer periods of relative
dryness will mark the periods between extreme rainstorms, increasing
the risk of drought. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that, under a scenario of intense
warming, the percent of land enduring severe drought globally could be
30 times greater by the end of the century than it is today.
“How
serious this problem gets is largely within our control – but only if
our country acts boldly to reduce the pollution that fuels global
warming,” said Ketcham.
According
to the most recent science, the United States must reduce its total
global warming emissions by at least 15 percent by 2020 and by at least
80 percent by 2050 in order to prevent the worst effects of global
warming.
“Steep
reductions in global warming pollution are challenging but achievable,”
noted Ketcham. “And we already have the energy efficiency and renewable
energy technologies we need to get started.”
Tomorrow,
the U.S. Senate Environment & Public Works (EPW) Committee is
expected to vote on amendments to the “Lieberman-Warner Climate
Security Act of 2007” (S. 2191), a global warming bill introduced by
Senators Lieberman (I-CT) and Warner (R-VA). While recognizing the
important efforts of the bill’s supporters on this critical issue,
Environment New Mexico said that the legislation must be significantly
strengthened to address the challenges of global warming. Specifically,
the bill’s current pollution reduction targets fall short of what the
science says is necessary to avoid the worst effects of global warming,
and the bill gives away far too many subsidies to dirty and dangerous
energy sources.
“In
addition to calling for a strengthening of the “Lieberman-Warner
Climate Security Act of 2007”, Senators Bingaman and Domenici should
cosponsor the Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act – the only
legislation in Congress that would reduce pollution fast enough to
protect future generations from the worst effects of global warming,”
concluded Ketcham.
