The death toll from extreme heat will increase significantly by mid-century as global warming drives up summertime temperatures, according to a new report released by Environment New Mexico and conducted by Applied Climatologists, Inc. experts Dr. Laurence Kalkstein of the University of Miami and Dr. Scott Greene of the University of Oklahoma.
The study, “An Analysis of Potential Heat-Related Mortality Increases in U.S. Cities Under A Business-as-Usual Climate Change Scenario,” examined twenty-one U.S. cities and found that 23,160 additional heat-related deaths would occur due to global warming-induced temperature increases by 2050. The average summer season would see a doubling of heat-related deaths, going from about 908 heat-related deaths per summer now to almost 1,900 mid-century.
“As a result of global warming, summers in the future will become more and more unbearable as temperatures sore and heat waves last longer,” said Environment New Mexico Advocate, Lauren Ketcham. “We need Congress to enact federal policy that cuts our global warming pollution to levels that will prevent the worst effects of global warming.”
Heat already ranks as the top weather-related killer in the United States. Between 1979 and 2002, heat killed more than eight thousand people—more than hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes, floods and earthquakes combined. According to the most recent assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (a United Nations scientific body charged with reporting on the consensus data surrounding global warming) hot days, hot nights and heat waves have become more frequent in recent years.
The study looked at data for 21 cities, including Albuquerque, and took four factors into consideration in its analysis:
- Each study city’s population’s current sensitivity to extreme heat events, determined by evaluating past temperatures and other data with information about historic mortality between 1975-2004;
- The conditions that trigger heat-related mortality, analyzing how mortality changes in response to temperatures and identifying a “threshold” temperature for each city, above which mortality increases;
- The effect of behavior changes or “acclimatization” on heat-related mortality, including the actions people take to limit their exposure or risk, such as limiting daytime outdoor activities, increasing liquids intake and installing air conditioners; and
- How global warming will change these conditions by mid-century, by looking at how the hottest summers on record can help us replicate the summers projected under climate change modeling.
The report found that the number of “mortality days”—or days that exceed a threshold temperature, above which conditions and temperatures are more likely to cause significant mortality—would increase by two and a half times, going from a total of 113 per summer to 283 by 2050.
Moreover, the amount of heat-related deaths that would result from an increase in mortality days would increase from 908 per year at the current rate to 1,873 per year by 2050. Cumulatively, heat-related mortality would result in over 23,000 deaths by 2050.
The prolonged high temperatures of future heat waves will impact the elderly the most, with young children, people with certain medical conditions and people who work or exercise outdoors also being at elevated risk. In addition, the urban poor, many of whom do not have air conditioning and lack access to air-conditioned public places, are vulnerable to heat-related illnesses.
“There’s no question that rising temperatures and more extreme weather are likely to increase heat-related mortality in the coming decades, unless we begin now to take bold, immediate action to reduce our global warming emission to avoid some of the worst effects of global warming,” said Randall Coleman, an Associate with Environment New Mexico. “We urge New Mexico’s congressional delegation to support the Safe Climate Act and the Global Warming Pollution Reductions Act.”
The study’s findings are consistent with a 1997 scientific study by Drs. Kalkstein and Greene on the relationship between changing climate and mortality in large U.S. cities, published in “Environmental Health Perspectives.” The study was conducted through Dr. Kalkstein’s firm, Applied Climatologists, Inc.
Additional Contacts:
Gregory Green, National Environmental Trust- 505-280-9545
Dan Howells, Clear the Air- 202-887-8821
